For some time , my reports have suggested the media frenzy regarding Covid-19 was being greatly exaggerated.
This seems at odds with the surge in cases and draconian moves by some politicians to contain Covid-19. As of yesterday, daily cases were averaging over 65,000 a day, up from 30,000 a day in April. The peak in April occurred early in the month at 32,000 daily cases.
The most important statistic surrounding the virus is not cases but deaths. In spite of the surge in cases, daily deaths are well below what occurred in April. In April, daily cases of 30,000 led to 2,600 deaths about ten days following the peak in cases. With daily Covid cases at 65,000 this past week, the expectation would be for over 5,000 daily deaths. So far, daily deaths have been in the area of 1,000 or less. While the peak in cases may still be ahead, the risk of death from the recent surge appears much lower than before.
In addition to lower death rates, it’s important to monitor serious or critical cases. These are usually cases in hospitals. In early April, the number of serious cases increased quickly and dramatically in response to an increase in cases. While there has been a recent increase in serious cases, it has been far less than the immediate dramatic increase in early April.
As Covid-19 cases surge in this country and throughout the world, the latest data show a very positive trend. Deaths and serious cases have not followed the pattern seen earlier. While no one knows where the numbers will go from here, these are encouraging developments underlying the record jump in cases. Doctors are learning how to treat the virus. Those who are vulnerable could be taking greater precautions to avoid the virus. And, it’s always possible the virus could be losing some of its potency. Whatever the reason, the lower incidence of deaths and serious cases is encouraging news the media isn’t reporting.
Robert Genetski (email@example.com) is an economist in Saugatuck, MI. This article was published July 16, 2020 on Classical Principles.com. Reprinted with permission.