For the past six months I’ve been predicting President Donald Trump will win the upcoming presidential election.
My original prediction was based on my belief people understood how well the economy did under Trump’s policies and would want him to do it again. As riots broke out in major cities and the mayors did nothing to control law and order, my confidence in Trump’s winning increased. It only makes sense for most people to choose security over chaos.
As COVID became more of a problem and governments locked down the economy, the likelihood of a second term for Trump became less certain. However, as people gradually became more concerned about the economy than over the virus, Trump became a cheerleader for reopening. It became surreal to watch the optics of a vigorous president defying COVID while his opponent cowered behind a mask in his basement.
As the election approaches, more than 50 percent of voters give Trump credit for bringing the economy back. Polls asking voters who they’re voting for show liberals are excited to tell everyone who they are voting for. Independents are less likely to share their opinions, and conservatives are least likely. This suggests most polls are not capturing the support for Trump.
Polls are also missing both the enthusiasm and the type of voters who are attracted to Trump. Trump rallies are attracting 10,000 to 20,000 supporters. Data from those at the rallies show 25 percent to 30 percent of attendees are first-time voters, or are black, or consider themselves Democrats. Most polls are missing a lot of these voters.
As occurred in 2016, the polls are now narrowing. Investors’ Business Daily is one of few 2016 polls that had Trump winning. It now has Biden’s lead nationally down to 4.9 points. It has bounced back and forth over the past week, but it had Biden’s lead at 8½ points just over a week ago.
An even better poll is produced by the Trafalgar group. It focuses on individual states instead of national totals. Trafalgar also got it right in 2016. They have a unique approach which incorporates insights into what voters are thinking and how much enthusiasm is involved. Their latest poll shows Trump winning enough states to get well over 270 electoral votes.
Helmut Norpoth is a Stony Brook University professor and political scientist. He uses a political model based on data from elections over the past century. His model has correctly predicted five of the past six presidential elections. Norpoth is predicting a Trump landslide with 362 electoral votes and a 91 percent likelihood he will win reelection.
If Professor Norpoth is correct, the Trump landslide bodes well not only for the president but also for Republicans retaining control of the Senate.