HomeHealth Care NewsTrend in Vaccine Deaths Shows More than “Natural Occurrence”

Trend in Vaccine Deaths Shows More than “Natural Occurrence”

A review of the number of days between COVID-19 vaccines and occurrences of death suggests there may be another explanation than “natural occurrence.”

The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reported 653 deaths following either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine by February 4.  The U.S. Centers for Disease Control reported 35,203,710 total doses administered by February 4, according to CNN.

The deaths have caused modest alarm because they could merely be a coincidence, particularly among older populations who have been first in line for the vaccines.

That assumption, however, may not be entirely correct. Harvey Risch, M.D., an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health finds, looked at the number of days between vaccine and death. Risch says if the natural occurrence was the explanation, the same number of deaths would happen roughly every day after the vaccine.

Instead, the numbers show something quite different. Within the first day, there were 138 deaths, followed by 147 on day one, 76 on day two, 49 on day three, 43 on day four, 35 on day five, 24 on day six, 21 on day seven, 16 on day eight, 17 on day nine and 61 between the tenth and fourteenth day (average 12.2 per day)  and 66 between the fifteenth and thirtieth day (average 4.1 per day).

“There is background mortality of approximately four deaths a day in the VAERS data,”  said Risch. “That would suggest that within the first 30 days after the vaccination, some 120 should have died, which leaves 573 deaths apparently attributable to the vaccinations.”

The Mortality Narrative

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states there are no “detected patterns in the cause of death that would indicate a safety problem with COVID-19 vaccines.” A similar message was given by the Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), which is in charge of vaccination in Germany. “We assume the patients died of their underlying disease – in a coincidental time with the vaccination,” stated a PEI official, quoted in DW. After the death of a man on January 17, the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services stated, “vaccination is the best line of defense against the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Media reports have followed the narrative that more people would have died without the vaccine but that misses the point, says Risch. “[There needs to be] a rational explanation for the exponential trend in daily deaths, that should otherwise be constant if they were for reasons unrelated to the vaccinations,” said Risch. “Of course deaths would have been greater if they got Covid and had no outpatient treatment. But not necessarily so with early treatment.”

Risch was one of a number of physicians who testified at U.S. Senate hearings in late 2020 on compelling evidence that early outpatient treatment for COVID-19 with existing drugs and nutraceuticals can keep patients out of the hospital and alive.

Autopsies would offer an exact cause of death and could offer clues on mortality patterns related to the vaccines.


AnneMarie Schieber (amschieber@heartland.org) is the managing editor of Health Care News.


AnneMarie Schieber
AnneMarie Schieber
AnneMarie Schieber is a research fellow at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Health Care News, Heartland's monthly newspaper for health care reform.



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