I have been criticized for claiming there are numerous signs fraud occurred in the 2020 election. I am far from alone in this understanding: a Rasmussen poll shows 47 percent of the public believe the election was stolen.
A powerful reason for this conclusion is the number of signs casting doubt on the integrity of the election. At present, it is difficult to provide a definitive answer as to whether widespread fraud occurred. This is unfortunate. It means that Trump and his supporters believe they were cheated. It also means Biden and his administration are under a cloud, with even 30 percent of Democrats believing the election was stolen.
Signs and Anomalies
I outline here some of the signs pointing to the likelihood of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Although these signs raise suspicions of fraud, at this time they are inconclusive. It will take major reforms in future elections to restore faith in our elections and in our democracy.
1. The Wall Street Journal reports there are 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980. Eighteen of the 19 voted for Trump. The two bellwether states of Florida and Ohio also voted for Trump. For more than 95 percent of reliable bellwether areas to suddenly get the winner wrong is highly suspect. It indicates something very strange about the outcome of the 2020 election.
2. MIT data scientist and Fulbright Scholar Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai and two associates with expertise in software engineering analyzed the 2020 presidential votes by precinct in the four largest counties in Michigan: Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, and Kent. Their analysis includes an explanation of the voting software used in vote counting machines. The software has algorithms that can be used to redirect votes from one candidate to another and even to produce fractional votes. The only reason for such an algorithm would be to promote fraud. Election officials in Texas rejected such software, whereas many states, including Michigan, chose to use it.
The Shiva analysis shows a normal pattern for presidential votes in Democratic Wayne county. As the precincts became more Republican, Trump’s votes improved relative to a straight Republican ticket. In Oakland, Macomb, and Kent counties, however, the results were very different. As counties became more Republican, Trump’s votes became progressively lower relative to a straight Republican ticket. In the most Republican of all precincts, those where more than 60 percent voted a straight Republican ticket, Trump tended to receive more than 20 percent fewer votes than the straight Republican ticket.
The unusual pattern of Trump losing progressively more votes in more-Republican precincts is highly suspicious. Shiva’s analysis of the data maintains the pattern reflects an algorithm that is active in 80 percent of the most-Republican precincts, shifting votes from Trump to Biden.
The analysis maintains the shift in votes involves a mathematical transfer increasing Biden votes in direct proportion to the increase in the percentage of Republicans in the precinct. If such an algorithm did this, it would be a clear sign of a fraudulent election.
The Shiva analysis has been challenged by statisticians and mathematicians. After evaluating both Shiva’s analysis and that of the challengers, the results appear inconclusive.
The only way to ascertain whether Shiva’s analysis is valid is to count paper ballots in select highly Republican districts in these counties. If Trump votes from paper ballots are systematically greater than the count reported by the voting machines, it is a sign of widespread fraud. If the hand count of ballots verifies the machine count, it will indicate the machines did what they were supposed to do and did not shift votes from Trump to Biden.
3. Another type of fraud is the addition of large numbers of illegal ballots. The Voter Integrity Project is a libertarian, crowdfunded organization established to promote free and fair elections. The Project produced a unique study tracking the receipt of vote totals in key battleground states. The study shows highly unusual voting abnormalities consistent with major increases in votes for Biden that were reported in the early morning hours after Election Day. Such abnormalities are consistent with the counting of a large number of illegal votes. Sworn testimony by individuals reporting behavior consistent with this type of behavior is another indication of potential fraud.
In a 42-minute video, Matt Braynard, head of the Voter Integrity Project, analyzed examples and reported on the magnitude of the fraud his organization found in the 2020 election. His group called, spoke with, and elicited sworn affidavits from numerous people reporting fraud. These have been turned over to the FBI and to those challenging the outcome of the election in various states.
Braynard’s evidence strongly suggests fraud did occur. However, many of the key contested areas where abnormalities occurred do not appear to have the evidence to determine whether all votes were legitimate. In some areas, signature cards verifying votes have been discarded or there is a lack of available records, even though they are required by federal law.
In 2005, the potential for fraud was of such great concern a bipartisan commission reported recommendations for establishing and preserving the integrity of elections. The commission, chaired by Jimmy Carter and Howard E. Baker, listed numerous important requirements, such as photo IDs, a voter verifiable paper trail, and a uniform, publicly available, voter identification system. Most of the recommendations have not been adopted.
Today there are major inconsistencies among precincts in terms of compliance with federal and state election laws. As a result, citizens do not have the constitutional right of “equal protection under the law” with respect to elections. Among the solutions would be a requirement for end-to-end audits in each precinct, county, and state to ensure the integrity of the election.
Without an end-to-end, auditable trail, votes from noncompliant precincts should be declared invalid.
Matter of Faith
Given what we know at this time, the most likely development is Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be named president and vice president of the United States. While ongoing legal challenges to the election will be pursued, the lack of fully auditable returns makes it unlikely legal challenges will succeed.
The inability to resolve election abnormalities is a serious problem. With many losing faith in the integrity of our elections, major reforms are needed to restore faith in our democracy.