Report: Global Warming – Observations vs. Climate Models

By Roy Spencer

Average warming of the climate system over the past five decades has been widely attributed to greenhouse gas emissions—primarily carbon dioxide (CO₂)—from the burning of fossil fuels. This belief has led to calls for greatly reducing humanity’s reliance on such fuels and a transition to “renewable” energy sources such as wind power and solar energy.

For the purposes of guiding public policy and for adaptation to any climate change that occurs, it is necessary to understand the claims of global warming science as promoted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When it comes to increases in global average temperature since the 1970s, three questions are pertinent:

1. Is recent warming of the climate system materially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, as is usually claimed?
2. Is the rate of observed warming close to what computer climate models—used to guide public policy—show?
3. Has the observed rate of warming been sufficient to justify alarm and extensive regulation of CO₂ emissions?

While the climate system has warmed somewhat over the past five decades, the popular perception of a “climate crisis” and resulting calls for economically significant regulation of CO₂ emissions is not supported by science.

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To read the full report, click here.

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Roy Spencer is a Visiting Fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment.

Originally published by The Heritage Foundation. Republished with permission.

To read more about issues with climate models, click here.