Climate Change Weekly #429: Climate Change Poses No Existential Threat. Nada. Not Any.

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IN THIS ISSUE:

• Climate Change Poses No Existential Threat. Nada. Not Any.
• Podcast of the Week: Gas Prices Skyrocketing, Energy Crisis Incoming?
• Indian Subcontinent’s Climate Dominated by Natural Factors
• Australian Court Determines No Climate Duty of Care Owed to Children
• Climate Comedy
• Video of the Week: The Oil Crisis, Saving the Planet, and Talking Climate Realism
• BONUS Video of the Week: Is the Climate Agenda Dead?
• Recommended Sites

Climate Change Poses No Existential Threat. Nada. Not Any.

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Podcast of the Week

The Heartland Institute’s Donald Kendal, Jim Lakely, Linnea Lueken, and the Center on the American Experiment’s Isaac Orr present episode 336 of the In The Tank Podcast. On this episode, the ITT crew talks the rise in gas prices and the Biden Administration’s contradictory responses to the increases. From promoting green energy and recommending electric vehicles, to buying more oil from Saudi Arabia and touting increased oil production in the U.S., the Biden Administration seems to be scrambling.

IPCC Report Misrepresents Climate Data

A new book from the academic publisher Elsevier examines the factors that drive weather conditions, particularly the all-important monsoon seasons that affect the billions of people living in and around the Indian subcontinent. Monsoon rains bring periodic destruction and support regional agricultural production.

With contributions from more than 60 researchers and scientists across 23 chapters, the book examines the factors that drive, contribute to, or influence monsoons on seasonal, annual, decadal, and longer-term scales, both in the “big picture” and in minute detail.

The book indicates all evidence suggests short, medium, and long term monsoons patterns are dominated by nature. If climate change has any effect, it hasn’t been definitively measured or identified thus far.

Looking ahead, the book shows climate model simulations of future negative changes in seasonal monsoon timing and severity tied to human greenhouse gas emissions all flow from RCP 8.5 model runs, which are impossible to obtain because of the limits of available fossil fuels. This and other factors have definitively discredited RCP 8.5 in the literature, so it is unclear why some chapter authors use its simulations to forecast possible future monsoon trends in and around the Indian subcontinent.

The overall consensus of the book is that the primary factors driving seasonal monsoon rains are shifts of various natural teleconnections along different time scales. Teleconnections are recurrent and persistent large-scale patterns of pressure and circulation anomalies. The patterns responsible for monsoon frequency, severity, stability, and duration overlap include global, regional, and localized oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), El Nino and La Nina oscillations (ENSO), Eurasian snowfall trends, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and others.

Any measurable anthropogenic forcing affecting monsoon patterns has yet to be discovered.

The view of the authors of the book’s chapters on climate models is summed up fairly well in this statement from Chapter 1:

Despite the improvements in [General Circulation Models] over the last two decades, the quality of their prediction of ISM (Indian Summer Monsoon), especially in its operational mode, is still a matter of debate. The dynamical prediction skill originates mainly from the fact that monsoon strength is tightly linked to teleconnections. Current couple models have limited skills in predicting teleconnections to ISM.

In Chapter 18, the authors observe that among the third generation of climate models only two of the 38 accurately describe the established relationship between ISM and the AMO. The fifth generation of models (CMIP5) does only slightly better, and their projections of the ISM/AMO teleconnections are all over the map. The CMIP 5 models are incapable of modelling or only weakly model the known (observed) relationship between the AMO and changes in the tropical Pacific region and shifts in sea surface temperature anomalies, the authors explain.

The authors of Chapter 20 find climate models don’t agree on what kinds of changes in the ISM one might expect from anthropogenic forcing:

[T]here has been no consensus among modelling studies on either the past change or the projections of the future change of the [ENSO-ISM] teleconnection. [A]nalyzing CMIP5 model simulations … showed that natural variability plays a dominant role in decadal ENSO-ISM teleconnection during the twentieth century.

Although climate models forecast some monsoon pattern changes going forward in the twenty-first century, the changes are based on multiple model runs from the discredited RCP 8.5 extreme emissions scenarios. The RCP 8.5 simulations don’t produce consistent projections that rise above “noise,” or natural background fluctuations in the climate in the region. The authors state the “ENSO-ISM relation during the twentieth and twenty-first century shows no robust change in the sense that most of the models agree on the sign of change, leaving us with inconclusive results.”

In short, this book catalogs what is known and what remains unknown about the global, regional, and local teleconnections that drive the Indian summer monsoons, and it concludes any anthropogenic impact on monsoons is swamped by natural factors, as far as can be determined and reasonably expected.

SOURCE: Elsevier

Heartland’s Must-read Climate Sites

Australian Court Determines No Climate Duty of Care Owed to Children

A unanimous Australian Federal Court ruling found the nation’s government does not have an enforceable duty of care to protect young people from harm from climate change, when assessing fossil fuel projects or other government actions that might result in greenhouse gas emissions.

The ruling overturned an earlier win by a group of eight youths who brought a class action on behalf of all Australian children, in which Justice Mordecai Bromberg ruled the government did have a common-law duty of care.

Although the federal court did not dispute climate change is occurring or that it may pose serious harm to humanity, the court ruled existing Australian law establishes no such duty of care. Chief Justice James Allsop wrote in his decision, “allowing the ‘duty of care’ ruling to stand would have required changes to government policy, [an action] that should be left to the government itself, not the courts.”

SOURCE: Australian Broadcasting Corporation News

Video of the Week: The Oil Crisis, Saving the Planet, and Talking Climate Realism

The Heartland Institute’s H. Sterling Burnett, Anthony Watts, and Linnea Lueken are featured on this episode of Climate Change Roundtable. Join us every Friday at the same time for another episode, and subscribe to the channel and “hit the bell” to get notifications of when the show is about to start.

ISSUE 1: Why are gas prices rising?

ISSUE 2: Our ‘Leaders’ Are Ruining Our Lives and the National Economy to ‘Save the Planet.’

ISSUE 3: Watts Up With That Essay Contest – Is there really a climate crisis? (A Greta Leap Forward)

BONUS Video of the Week: Is the Climate Agenda Dead?

The Heartland Institute’s Donald Kendal, Jim Lakely, Linnea Lueken, and JunkScience.com’s Steve Milloy present episode 337 of the In The Tank Podcast. On this episode, the ITT crew discusses the question “is the climate change agenda dead?” In light of rising gas and energy prices, it looks as though the climate change agenda is being put on the back burner.

Climate Comedy

via Comically Incorrect

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